Toronto | Treaty Lands and Territory of the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, and the traditional territory of the Anishinaabeg, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat – New analysis, commissioned by Environmental Defence, reveals that the province’s plan to build new nuclear power plants could cost ratepayers $117 billion more than a renewable energy alternative by 2050. This would cost the average household up to $456 more a year in electricity costs.

The report, The Real Costs of Ontario’s Nuclear Gamble, with technical analysis conducted by Power Advisory LLC, compares Ontario’s plans to build new nuclear facilities at Wesleyville and on the Bruce Peninsula against a renewable energy pathway built around wind, solar, and battery storage. The findings are stark: Ontario’s planned nuclear expansion would require $221 billion in capital investment by 2050, compared to $104 billion for renewable energy. That $117 billion gap will show up on electricity bills for decades to come.

“The province is preparing for a significant growth in electricity demand as we electrify homes, cars and industries. But Ontario is planning to rely very heavily on nuclear power, and we haven’t had much of a conversation about how much this might cost or whether it’s the best way forward,” says Keith Brooks, Programs Director at Environmental Defence. “Ontario is choosing a very costly, and risky, route even though a renewable energy focused portfolio could meet our needs at much lower cost.”

In addition to refurbishing the Darlington, Bruce, and Pickering Nuclear Generating Stations, and building four SMRs at Darlington, Ontario is planning for a new nuclear generating station at Wesleyville with a capacity of up to 10,000 MWs and another new plant on the Bruce Peninsula with another 4,800 MWs of capacity. The current plan is for nuclear power to generate over 70 per cent of electricity by 2050 while renewable energy growth flatlines.

“Ontario is going against the global trend, which aside from being costly, is also driving up emissions from gas plants in the near term, undoing much of the progress we made in phasing out coal,” adds Brooks.

Nuclear power projects have a history of going over budget and getting behind schedule. Ontario’s last new nuclear plant — Darlington — went from a $3.9 billion estimate to $14.4 billion, nearly four times over budget. The most recent nuclear power plant built in North America, Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear project, ballooned from $14 billion to $36-37 billion and took 15 years to complete. The Power Advisory analysis assumes new nuclear projects are delivered on time and on budget and yet the costs are still over $100 billion more than renewable energy.

“Ontarians deserve transparency when governments make massive, expensive decisions about essentials like electricity. The evidence is clear: there is a cleaner, more affordable alternative to the nuclear-heavy path the province is currently pursuing,” says Brooks.

Key Findings from the Report:

• Ontario’s nuclear expansion pathway requires $221 billion in capital investment by 2050, compared to $104 billion for a renewable energy alternative. Capital costs in the nuclear scenario could climb as high as $294 billion.
• The average Ontario household could pay up to $456 more every year in electricity generation costs by 2050 under the nuclear plan, depending on demand scenarios.
• Nuclear electricity is projected to cost $143–$168/MWh by 2050, compared to $114/MWh for renewable energy — up to 47 per cent more expensive.
• Ontario’s most recent energy auction delivered renewable energy at $87.80/MWh, confirming renewable power is now the cheapest new energy source.

The full report, The Real Costs of Ontario’s Nuclear Gamble, and the technical analysis by Power Advisory LLC, Ontario’s Electricity Supply Pathway, are available at environmentaldefence.ca.

ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENCE (environmentaldefence.ca): Environmental Defence is a leading Canadian advocacy organization that works with government, industry and individuals to defend clean water, a safe climate and healthy communities.

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For more information or to request an interview, please contact:

Tamara Latinovic, Environmental Defence, media@environmentaldefence.ca