INTRODUCTION
Alberta stands at a crossroads. The province’s oil and gas revenues account for 20-25 per cent of the budget, despite only employing 5 per cent of the workforce. This has created a dangerous economic vulnerability as global energy markets shift towards renewables.Â
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that 40 per cent of the worldwide energy supply will come from renewable sources by 2030. Meanwhile, 97 per cent of Alberta's crude exports flow to a single market: the United States, creating risk precisely when America pursues energy independence and global demands increasingly favour low-carbon alternatives.
New Frontiers leverages Alberta's entrepreneurial spirit, skilled workforce, and abundant renewable resources to develop alternative economic sectors to reach 50 per cent of GDP by 2050. Simultaneously, Alberta can achieve 90-95 per cent renewable electricity generation while creating more than one hundred thousand clean energy jobs and establishing itself as a renewable energy hub in North America.
Alberta has already demonstrated its ability to execute large-scale energy transitions, eliminating coal-fired electricity in June 2024—six years ahead of the 2030 target. However, current regulatory barriers imposed in 2024 have effectively stopped renewable energy development, with just 50 MW of renewable capacity added in eight months-a dramatic reversal from 2016-2023, when renewable energy supply increased by more than 1,200 per cent.
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A nominal 3 per cent levy on oil and gas profits could grow the Heritage Fund to $600 billion by 2060.
The amount of Canadian crude exports consumed by the USA
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The amount that Indigenous and Métis communities are behind  Canada’s electricity-generating infrastructure, with almost all producing renewable energy
The percentage of Alberta's revenue that comes from oil and gas exports
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The Opportunity
The economic case for transformation is undeniable. Renewable energy has become more cost-effective than traditional gas-fired power generation in Alberta. Global investment trends show a decisive shift, with renewable energy now attracting nearly twice the capital investment of fossil fuels. Without action, Alberta risks missing this historic economic opportunity while renewable energy innovation flourishes elsewhere.
Alberta's renewable energy potential remains largely untapped due to policy barriers rather than technical limitations. Calculations show renewable resources can meet all electricity needs while creating economic opportunities across all sectors. Strategic investment in the Heritage Fund through a modest 3 per cent levy on oil profits could grow the fund to $600 billion by 2060, generating $50 billion annually in dividends for economic diversification and public services.
Transformation is more than doable and Indigenous and Métis communities are leading the way. Projects like the Otipemisiwak Métis Government's Salay Prayzaan Solar Farm and the Fort Chipewyan Solar Farm demonstrate the innovation and leadership Indigenous communities bring to Alberta's energy transition. Success requires removing regulatory barriers, expanding loan guarantees, and ensuring Indigenous participation in all significant renewable energy developments.
The agricultural sector presents a $47 billion investment opportunity over 25 years that can triple its GDP contribution from $10.3 billion to $31 billion while creating 150,000 new jobs. Energy efficiency represents Alberta's fastest pathway to transition success, with a comprehensive plan to achieve a 25 per cent reduction in energy consumption, generating massive annual savings once implemented.
cONCLUSION
Alberta stands at a crossroads. The province’s oil and gas revenues account for 20-25 per cent of the budget, despite only employing 5 per cent of the workforce. This has created a dangerous economic vulnerability as global energy markets shift towards renewables.Â
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that 40 per cent of the worldwide energy supply will come from renewable sources by 2030. Meanwhile, 97 per cent of Alberta's crude exports flow to a single market: the United States, creating risk precisely when America pursues energy independence and global demands increasingly favour low-carbon alternatives.
New Frontiers leverages Alberta's entrepreneurial spirit, skilled workforce, and abundant renewable resources to develop alternative economic sectors to reach 50 per cent of GDP by 2050. Simultaneously, Alberta can achieve 90-95 per cent renewable electricity generation while creating more than one hundred thousand clean energy jobs and establishing itself as a renewable energy hub in North America.
Alberta has already demonstrated its ability to execute large-scale energy transitions, eliminating coal-fired electricity in June 2024—six years ahead of the 2030 target. However, current regulatory barriers imposed in 2024 have effectively stopped renewable energy development, with just 50 MW of renewable capacity added in eight months-a dramatic reversal from 2016-2023, when renewable energy supply increased by more than 1,200 per cent.
Let's take action!
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Aenean sagittis, ante in aliquam scelerisque, orci augue vehicula nisi, vitae aliquam turpis velit quis nisi. Vestibulum ante ipsum primis.
