For immediate release: November 12, 2025
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENCE
Statement in Response to IEA’s WEO 2025 Shows Net-Zero Is Within Reach but Fossil Fuel Expansion Is Slowing Us Down
Statement by Aly Hyder Aly, Oil and Gas Program Manager, Environmental Defence
Ottawa | Traditional, unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabeg People – This year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) offers both hope and clarity: we have the tools and a viable pathway to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but it also reaffirms that achieving this future means ending all new fossil fuel expansion..
The scenarios provided by the IEA make clear the diverging paths before us. There is an achievable path to a net-zero future, powered by renewable energy that can save people money and reduce the cost of climate damages, if we accelerate the energy transition. Or, the path of Current Policies (CPS), which will prioritize the profits of already wealthy fossil fuel companies while the world pays the ultimate price by sacrificing a stable climate.
US President Trump strongarmed the IEA into publishing the CPS. President Trump and the fossil fuel lobby want to use this disastrous scenario to discourage support for the energy transition, and to mislead the markets about the future of fossil fuels. However, demand for oil and coal is expected to peak by 2030 based on STEPS, while renewable energy is still the fastest-growing energy source in all scenarios published in the report. This is further amplified by the momentum at the UN climate negotiations taking place right now, which are building towards a just transition and the phaseout of fossil fuels.
The CPS scenario is also the most expensive for the world. Conversely, the scenario that delivers the cheapest mix of energy is the Net Zero Emissions scenario (NZE), which also achieves the goals of the Paris Agreement and universal energy access by 2030. It is clear that the only path to prosperity for all is the NZE.
If Canada aligns with President Trump’s fossil-fueled agenda, it will fail to put Canadians at the centre of its “Build Canada” agenda. A rapid rollout of renewable energy, now the cheapest form of electricity in history, will build energy security and affordability for Canadians. Building out yet more fossil fuels may deliver returns for fossil fuel companies but it will leave Canada behind in the global energy transition.
On the eve of another announcement of nation-building projects, this report confirms that despite growing natural gas demand, the predicted supply exceeds demand. There simply is no market for additional Canadian LNG under both the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Net Zero Emissions (NZE) pathway. Ksi Lisims will be entering a market oversupplied with gas and lacking buyers.
Canada must heed the findings of this year’s World Energy Outlook report and plan for a phase-down of fossil fuels, and instead increase investments in renewable energy and energy infrastructure. This must include fulfilling Canada’s commitment to phase out all fossil fuel subsidies, advancing clean energy, and funding a just transition for workers and communities.
This report makes clear that the global energy transition is underway. The Government of Canada must choose whether to align with this shift, prioritizing the prosperity and well-being of Canadians, or resist it, risking further environmental harm and leaving Canada behind in the global transition.
ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENCE (environmentaldefence.ca): Environmental Defence is a leading Canadian environmental advocacy organization that works with government, industry and individuals to defend clean water, a safe climate and healthy communities.
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For more information or to request an interview, please contact:
Midhat Moini, Environmental Defence, media@environmentaldefence.ca
